IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL CRISES ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN

Abstract

The study analyzes the impacts of geopolitical crises on global supply chains considering the theories of Kenneth Waltz and Joseph Nye. Adopting a combined theoretical approach between neorealism and liberalism, the research seeks to understand how political and strategic decisions shape foreign trade in contexts of conflict, especially following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This qualitative study, based on a structured literature review, compares the energy, fertilizer, and semiconductor sectors in terms of logistical costs, lead times, supplier concentration, and technological dependence. The results indicate that coercive measures, such as sanctions and export controls, increase costs and risks, while regulatory standards and potential international alliances tend to restore predictability and attract investment. It concludes that, in the face of geoeconomic fragmentation, public policies and business strategies should prioritize normative predictability, productive diversification, and economic diplomacy to mitigate vulnerabilities and sustain global supply flows.